Photo credit: Oleg Bkhambri (Creative Commons license)

If you’ve followed international soccer for any stretch of time, you’re probably familiar with the FIFA World Ranking system. This list, calculated and maintained by FIFA, attempts to quantitatively determine which teams are the best in the world. They’ve been around in some form since December 1992, and have undergone several dramatic revisions since then. The latest such change will occur after the World Cup, with a completely new calculation method based on the Elo formula. That Elo formula is also used by the World Football Elo Ratings, a competing ranking system that I — and many others — actually prefer.

First up, how exactly does FIFA calculate its rankings? There’s a method to their madness. The core formula is:

ranking points = result points x match status x opposition strength x regional strength

Let’s break that down.

Result points refers to a simple table of points, from zero to three, depending on the final result. Zero for a loss without a penalty shootout, one for a shootout loss or a draw, two for a shootout win and three for a win without a shootout.

Match status is a bit more complicated. It’s a multiplier based on what sort of match was played, from 1x to 4x. A regular friendly match has a 1x multiplier, a World Cup or continental cup qualifier 2.5x, continental cup or Confederations Cup finals 3x (as in the tournament itself, not just the final) and a World Cup finals (see previous note) 4x.

Opposition strength is a multiplier defined as (200 – opponent ranking position)/100. Fairly straightforward, with exceptions that the top team is rounded up to 2x instead of 1.99x, and every country ranked 150th and below is set at 0.5x.

Regional strength is where stuff gets a bit odd. This is where FIFA’s subjective opinions come in and the entire confederation’s results dating back to the previous World Cup are considered. These are updated every four years. Currently, CONMEBOL leads with 1x, UEFA is second with 0.99x, and all four other regions are at 0.85x. The regional strength multiplier is defined as the average of the regional multipliers of the two teams. CONMEBOL vs. CONCACAF would be .925, for example.

And then there’s the assessment period multiplier, used to weight the rating points based on that earlier formula. This is another table of multipliers, ranging from 0.2x to 1x, with 0.2x for matches 36-48 months ago, 0.3x from 24-36 months ago, 0.5x from 12-24 months ago and 1x within the last 12 months.

And then, the matches played are run through the various formulas, and a number comes out the other end. That number, the “total points,” is the criteria by which FIFA’s rankings are determined.

This formula has been criticized since its inception, and despite numerous revisions still isn’t as impartial as it could be. With something like this, it’s possible to use purely quantitative observations without subjective decisions to determine a rankings list. That’s where Elo comes in.

Elo ratings were initially created by physicist Arpad Elo with chess as a focus. The idea is to create a formula for both absolute rankings (i.e. a player’s individual strength) and comparative rankings (i.e. how much better or worse one player is than another). This has been adopted and adapted for soccer as the World Football Elo Ratings, making a few modifications to the formula to include the necessary variables that come along with soccer.

Their formula considers the current rating of a team at the time of the match a weight index K representing the status of the match from 60 for the World Cup down to 20 for a friendly; an index based on goal differential where G=1 for a one-goal margin of victory or a draw, G=3/2 for a two-goal win and G=(11+N)/8 for a three-goal or more victory; the result of the match where W=1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss; and the expected result of the match calculated by the difference in ratings with a 100-point boost for the home team.

There are some more complicated formulas there that I’m not going to bother transcribing into WordPress, so check out the Wikipedia article on the World Football Elo Ratings if you’re curious.

That last point, the expected result, is where the biggest advantage of Elo over FIFA lies. Not only can we say which team is the best in the world or which team is better than some other team, we can also say what we would expect the result of Team A playing Team B to be. World Football Elo Ratings also take into account every match played by international teams, giving it a predictive power that puts the FIFA ratings to shame. There was actually a study done in 2009 and published in 2013 that used both the current FIFA ratings system as well as Elo to predict the results of matches. The World Football Elo Ratings formula came out on top, while the FIFA formulas performed badly.

And before I jump into the 2018 World Cup groups, I’ll add that the FIFA Women’s World Rankings actually use a modified version of that Elo formula for their calculations instead of the FIFA formula used for the men’s teams.

So, to examine the World Cup and how these two systems apply, I’ll go group by group and give the ratings in both FIFA and Elo systems for every team. Ratings are taken from the June 7 FIFA World Ranking and June 13 World Football Elo Ratings.

Group A

TEAM	FIFA	Elo
Uruguay	14th (1018)	12th (1894)
Egypt	45th (649)	50th (1646)
Russia	70th (457)	45th (1678)
Saudi Arabia	67th (465)	63rd (1591)

Well, look at that, already something interesting. Russia’s FIFA rating is heavily depressed compared to their Elo. By the FIFA ratings, we wouldn’t expect Russia to be better than Saudi Arabia, but with Elo, it’s less surprising that they won, although probably not by five goals. Russia is expected to advance from the group per Elo, along with Uruguay. Saudi Arabia is predicted to outperform their FIFA ranking slightly, although they are the lowest rated team in the tournament. Egypt is the oddball as the only team rated worse by Elo than by FIFA in this group, where FIFA expects they would advance from the group while Elo says Russia goes on.

Group B

TEAM	FIFA	Elo
Spain	10th (1126)	3rd (2044)
Portugal	4th (1274)	6th (1970)
Iran	37th (708)	21st (1798)
Morocco	41st (686)	24th (1733)

More fun in Group B! Spain is rated lower by FIFA, Iran even more so, and Morocco very much a lot even more so holy shit. Portugal has the edge in the FIFA rankings, likely because of their Euro 2016 win. We would expect Spain and Portugal to advance from either rankings, though, so Iran or Morocco making it to the knockout round would be a significant upset.

Group C

TEAM	FIFA	Elo
France	7th (1198)	4th (1987)
Peru	11th (1125)	10th (1915)
Denmark	12th (1051)	16th (1856)
Australia	36th (718)	32nd (1742)

Nothing particularly odd here. FIFA rates France and Australia slightly worse, while rating Denmark a bit higher. The interesting thing to me is how little there is separating France, Denmark, and Peru on both ratings; only 131 points on Elo means that we can expect a lot of close games. So far, France only narrowly beat Australia thanks to an own goal, and Denmark beat Peru 1-0. This is going to be a very tough group.

Group D

TEAM	FIFA	Elo
Argentina	5th (1241)	5th (1986)
Croatia	20th (945)	17th (1853)
Iceland	22nd (908)	24th (1764)
Nigeria	48th (618)	44th (1681)

Not much to see here, really. Argentina is the undisputed fifth-best team on earth, Croatia and Nigeria are slightly underrated by FIFA, while Iceland is slightly overrated likely due to their run in Euro 2016. These four teams are separated by quite a lot, making Iceland’s draw against Argentina all the more unlikely. While, at first glance, it would look like both ratings pick Argentina and Croatia to advance, Iceland is close enough to Croatia to potentially beat them and make it to the knockout round.

Group E

TEAM	FIFA	Elo
Brazil	2nd (1431)	1st (2142)
Switzerland	6th (1199)	14th (1890)
Serbia	34th (751)	22nd (1777)
Costa Rica	23rd (884)	31st (1744)

And here we are, finally some discrepancies. Brazil is considered a very, very good team by both formulas, nothing surprising there, while Switzerland is ranked substantially higher by FIFA than Elo. Then there’s Costa Rica and Serbia, who nearly swap positions moving from FIFA to Elo. Serbia’s failure to qualify for the 2014 World Cup hurts them badly in the FIFA rankings, while Costa Rica gets a boost from their eighth-place finish in Brazil and third-place finish in the most recent Gold Cup. That doesn’t make either of them an easy bet to advance, though, given that there’s still quite a lot of breathing room between Serbia and Switzerland.

Group F

TEAM	FIFA	Elo
Germany	1st (1558)	2nd (2077)
Mexico	15th (989)	18th (1850)
Sweden	24th (880)	20th (1795)
South Korea	57th (544)	40th (1714)

Iiiiiiiiinteresting. FIFA really hates South Korea. They’re exceptionally harsh on Asian teams in general, with Japan sitting in 61st. Korea actually outranks both Panama and Nigeria in the Elo ratings, despite sitting well below both on FIFA’s list. Elo tends to rate AFC higher than FIFA does, while rating CONCACAF lower, which explains the slight disparity for Mexico. Sweden is ahead of Iceland in Elo, but not in FIFA. I blame the Euro 2016 bump for that one as well. Germany is almost guaranteed a spot in the knockout stage. Almost. If they lose to Sweden or *gasp* Korea though, we could have some chaos. I like chaos, and I’m definitely pulling for Sweden and Korea to advance.

Group G

TEAM	FIFA	Elo
England	12th (1051)	7th (1948)
Belgium	3rd (1298)	8th (1939)
Panama	55th (571)	48th (1659)
Tunisia	21st (910)	49th (1657)

Here’s a potential hot take for you: I think FIFA is dramatically overrating Tunisia. There is no reasonable explanation for there to be a 28-position difference between their Elo rating and FIFA ranking. In Elo, which has shown much stronger predictive power, Panama and Tunisia are essentially level on strength, with Russia and Egypt a little bit better and worse, respectively. This seems reasonable — hell, even logical. I find it interesting that Belgium gets a five-spot boost from FIFA while England drops five. Again, when the FIFA rankings show something weird, trust Elo. This is a group that is probably predetermined.

Group H

TEAM	FIFA	Elo
Colombia	16th (986)	9th (1928)
Poland	8th (1183)	19th (1831)
Senegal	27th (838)	27th (1750)
Japan	61st (521)	43rd (1684)

OK, now this makes no sense to me. Elo barely rates Poland in the top 20, while they’re top 10 for FIFA. Colombia are top 10 for Elo and 16th for FIFA. You want some UEFA bias proof? Here it is. Senegal is 27th objectively. Japan, meanwhile, suffers from FIFA’s bias against AFC, like Korea above. Japan outranks Nigeria, Egypt and Tunisia in the Elo ratings, and should be viewed as a threat to advance, not as the worst team in the group. In fact, Japan is closer to Senegal than Senegal is to Poland, and the entire group is separated by only 244 points in Elo (compare to 662 in FIFA). This is going to be a very strong group, and we’ve already seen that with the current standings matching the inverted Elo order.

So, that’s a little primer on the two rating systems, an explanation of why Elo is better and a demonstration that the FIFA rankings are kind of nuts. Stay tuned to Soc Takes for more World Cup content as the tournament continues.

Follow John on Twitter: @JohnMLTX.

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Photo credit: Jamie Smed/Soc Takes

“A lot of people say that football has nothing to do with life. I don’t know how much they know about life, but they don’t know anything about football.” That’s how Argentinean winger Angel Di Maria ended a reflexive social media post that echoed beyond his followers. His message was accurate; we see a footballer like Di Maria as a god-gifted athlete, but forget about every single event that brought him into the elite of the sport.

Di Maria referred to the many occasions that he played sick, or when he ran through the street blocks of Argentina to be on time for practice because he didn’t catch the bus. “What do they know?” Di Maria asked while he ripped off the superhero cape and shared an intimate moment on Instagram.

There is an immense social and economic impact in football. The dimension of the sport is so strong that sometimes it’s used as a geopolitical weapon. However, behind all that power, there’s a vulnerable aspect that sometimes we forget. Behind a jersey and a pair of soccer boots, there is a person with similar traits to any other human.

Football represents more than a tactical drawing or dead-ball situations. It’s a sport fueled by mental behavior; a player acts according to his or her emotions. Consequently, soccer is psychology.

The beginning of sports psychology dates back to the first period of the 20th century, and it obtained an international formality in 1965. Its involvement in soccer is fundamental. A study published by the Journal of Sports Behavior demonstrated that the application of psychological skills during a match improved the performance of midfielders in their passing, first touch and tackling.

Psychology in soccer evolved from inspiring speeches and therapy into analyzing the impact of the media, audiences and injury rehabilitation.

According to former Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM) coordinator of management of sports activities Martha Heredia, there are multiple psycho-social dimensions to address to help a soccer team. In her article “Sports psychology and football,” Heredia enlisted diverse aspects such as “leadership, group connection, effects of the audience in away games, effects of the mass media, self-esteem and athletic performance, physical rehabilitation, motivating tactics, and retirement preparation.” Altogether, those factors represent the exemplification of the individual and group psychological scope in football.

The methodological classification of sports psychology illustrates that soccer grants its athletes crucial aspects as life skills. Qualities like tactical thought, distribution of attention, psycho-motor coordination, group empathy, and emotional and anxiety control contribute to the evolution of soccer players outside the pitch.

Nevertheless, there are more traits that players develop when they’re not disputing games or training. The adaptation of foreign players to the habits of a new country represents a massively important role in the career of a footballer.

In December 2016, Argentinean forward Carlos Tevez signed for Shanghai Shenhua. The Chinese club offered Tevez $40 million per year, becoming the highest-paid football player ever. However, Andy Strong, a Chinese football expert and sports manager of the digital communication agency Mailman, called out the Argentinean striker. Strong was disappointed by “the attitude showed by Tevez,” as he told the international news organization Agencia EFE.

Strong compared Tevez with Brazilian striker Hulk, who “demonstrated much more effort, enthusiasm and preoccupation for the team and the game in China.” Tevez was involved in mysterious injuries, overweight and criticized for his eating habits. There was a lack of adaptation to a new way of living and work atmosphere. Tevez wasn’t able to complete a two-year contract, even when he took 19 family members to China so he could adjust to his new adventure, as Agencia EFE reported.

In an interview with psychologist and former professional player Diego Medina, he described that having a deep attachment to the homeland culture could not be beneficial for the player. This could trigger a lack of positive atmosphere in the abroad adventure, and create an essential need to seek psychological or coaching help for the new player as a development channel with an unknown atmosphere.

“Sometimes footballers miss the local cuisine, candy, places and even activities that they didn’t do at all back home,” Medina stated. “Footballers need a voluntary openness with themselves; they need to have the curiosity to interact with new elements. A person who ignores those traits can negatively affect their performance.”

For example, Tevez never clicked with the language, gastronomy and way of living. After his travesty with Juventus, he wanted to return to Argentina and signed a contract with Boca Juniors. But the offer made by Shanghai Shenhua was a lifetime opportunity.

Football is the universal language, and players need an outside interaction. According to Medina, a soccer player experiencing a new way of life will need professional help for solving interrogations with new habits. However, the intimacy between teammates is also a crucial factor in finding joy outside the locker room.

“The existence of mini-communities inside a football team is vital for new players,” Medina explained. “I’m a Liverpool fan, and through social media, you can see that the Brazilians hangout with the Spanish players. Both nationalities share the same root of language; therefore, the way of thinking is more parallel. If a new Brazilian player arrives at the club, there will be a community that will help them to adapt and create a friendship link.”

Medina assures that an intimate link between players that share the same language or common roots pays off in the performance of the team. The connection that Gabriel Jesus, Bernardo Silva, Fernandinho, Sergio Agüero and David Silva showed last season with Manchester City goes beyond training. There is chemistry outside the job. As a result, the interaction during a game is stronger.  

Nevertheless, when the situation doesn’t go as expected, the sentiment of isolation can knock the door. Footballers are assets and they are signed to get results. They are the daily conversation topic and targets of hard criticism. Top clubs demand immediate adjustment and communion with their ways. Fans could also make the stay uncomfortable. And discomfort generates lower efficiency.

“Look at Coutinho when he played in Liverpool,” Medina commented. “The fans rallied around him, and he displayed incredible football. Then he arrives at a rigorous club with a tough crowd like Barcelona. His performance decreased and the fans created a negative impact every time that Coutinho jumped into the field. You won’t like to interact with people that live in a place where there is no comfort for you.”

Coutinho belongs among the game’s elite players, but as Medina described, even when there’s the will to succeed, “failed consciousness actions” caused by hard criticism or lower execution on the pitch can lead to failure.

Oppositely, a fast adaptation brings joy and momentum to the player. The team benefits from someone who quickly understands their forms, like Portuguese offensive midfielder Joao Felix. The 19-year-old is generating euphoria in his first season with Atletico Madrid. In three official games, Felix has an assist and a goal with the club; consequently, Atletico is the leader of La Liga and the media bows to the Portuguese player.

Based on the study of Swiss psychiatrist and psychoanalyst Carl Jung, a person acts the way he or she acts because of their family origins. Those actions can make a footballer more enjoyable around people; therefore, that could generate the acceptance from a group already formed, or it could turn into isolation in a case where those traits are opposite to the group’s behavior. For example, Antoine Griezmann expressed a public love Uruguayan culture and enjoys consuming the national drink, “Mate.” As a result, South American players have a positive affinity for Griezmann and his ways.

Whereas a person might experience a favorable scenario, everything can change depending on the individual and the circumstances. Argentinean sports psychologist Marcelo Roffe published a list of fears that soccer players commonly mention in psychological tests. 

In the ninth chapter of his book “Psicologia del jugador de futbol: con la cabeza hecha pelotas,” Roffee enlisted the 30 actions that footballers dread. The conventional groups of fears mentioned were losing/failure, risking, rejection, internal and external competition, getting injured, communicating with the manager, wrongdoing, punishment, success and fear of the future/trying something new.

As simple as they are, those are the most vulnerable psychological threats of someone who is seen as a hero. The journey of a soccer player begins at a very young age and it is a short travesty that endures pain and mixed emotions. They are susceptible to unexpected changes, and could be far away from their natal country, family and friends for years while they accomplish their job. As things can go fantastic, they can quickly turn south.

Football is one of the most challenging careers; it requires an arduous physical and mental capacity to stay in the game. But it also needs human interactions, management of frustration and an obligation to adjust. As Roffe once said, “Football begins in the head and ends in the feet.”

Di Maria was right when he stated that we do not know shit about soccer.

Follow Luis on Twitter: @LFulloa.

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