23,000 fans showed up to watch the USMNT take on Venezuela at Nippert Stadium. Photo credit: Jamie Smed/Soc Takes

CINCINNATI — There was a moment during Gregg Berhalter’s press conference yesterday where everything felt different. Berhalter intimated that he expected the press coverage of the match to suggest that the sky was falling for the U.S. men’s national team (USMNT). And while he pretended this wouldn’t affect him and his team, based on his perturbed visage, Berhalter wouldn’t win at Texas Hold ‘Em.

This is the new reality for Berhalter. While he could largely do no wrong at Columbus Crew – since his omnipresence and honesty stood in direct contrast to the absence and duplicity of Precourt’s ownership – USMNT supporters are already starting to question every decision Berhalter makes.

Perhaps that’s normal.

Perhaps Berhalter is dealing with the consequences of decisions that precede him. Many of these decisions perhaps made above his paygrade.

Perhaps he is USMNT’s Vasily Ignatenko; bravely holding a fire hose in his hand. Blissfully unaware that he stands in a sea of radioactive graphite. While he focuses on the fire, the real dangers pre-exists him and will likely remain – for a long time – once he’s gone.

USMNT coach Gregg Berhalter. Photo credit: Jamie Smed/Soc Takes

This USMNT fan base has been patient for years. After the 2014 World Cup exit against Belgium, there was widespread optimism for the future of the men’s program. Experienced head coach Jurgen Klinsmann was expected to bring through an exciting core group of players. Signs were initially positive; big wins against Cuba, Guatemala, Costa Rica and Bolivia during the next couple of years, catalyzed by emerging talent Christian Pulisic, seemed to affirm the dreams of the USMNT fan base.

But then, things deteriorated. Acerbic Klinsmann was fired, braggadocious safe-choice Arena was hired, the 10,000 roentgen after 10/10/17, Proschay Прощай Arena, and USMNT’s Chernobyl moment had arrived. Sunil Gulati – USMNT’s Anatoly Dyatlov – at first pretended all was OK with the program and then decided to resign from his head honcho position in the nuclear power plant that is the United States Soccer Federation (USSF).

This was followed by 18 months that included –

The shitshow of a presidential election.

Lawsuits, baby.

The opaque technical director search.

English speaking managers only, please.

Did we really only speak to one candidate?

Wait, the guy involved in hiring you is your brother?

Berhalter is fighting a nuclear explosion with a fire hose. For the first time, yesterday, he looked like perhaps he was beginning to realize what he was up against.

After his press conference, attention shifted to his “excuses”; for example, his position that the first and third goals were offside. But, he was right about that.

Definitely offside on that Venezuela goal. It should have been called Offside pretty easily. It also should have been cleared pretty easily. Or, if not cleared, at least passed to someone in red pretty easily.So we’ll call it a draw?

We’ll call it a draw.#USAvVEN pic.twitter.com/Kgcy0rQVdh

— Jonathan Johnson (@AsstRef) June 9, 2019

More pertinent were questions related to his tactical and personnel decisions.

There are significant concerns about his desire to play possession football. While everyone agrees that is admirable, does he have the players to execute this style? It’s too early to say. It is very important to note that the issues yesterday were defensive distribution errors (Steffen’s horrendous pass into midfield) and two poor defensive actions (letting Rondon flick on the ball for the second, and getting beat one-on-one on the third).

It is also worth noting that the USMNT created a handful of chances in the second half – particular down the right side – using the same possession-style of football.

So, perhaps the problem is more to do with the transitional play, rather than in-possession play.

For those of us who have been following the game long enough to observe cyclical changes, this is not unfamiliar. Teams that have tried to transition into possession play (for example, Manchester City under Guardiola or Man United under Louis van Gaal), have experienced these same growing pains.

Aaron Long, Wil Trapp, Cristian Roldan, Matt Miazga and Zack Steffen are players who were particularly poor yesterday. Whether or not they survive the paradigmatic change will be interesting to watch.

Whether players such as the returning Pulisic, Altidore, Zardes, Morris, etc – associated with success in counter-attacking systems – can adapt to patient buildup play, also remains to be seen.

Another problem for Berhalter is that one of the players who may be a solution – Michael Bradley – is a divisive figure in terms of ascribed player quality.

Jozy Altidore came on as a substitute for the ineffective Gyasi Zardes. Photo credit: Jamie Smed/Soc Takes

Change takes time. And, disaster relief requires patience, resources and the right leadership.

In terms of patience, an understandably agitated USMNT supporter base is currently the equivalent of the corium Elephant’s Foot – dormantly lying under Reactor 4 at Chernobyl – but latent with potent radioactivity if disturbed.

In terms of resources, whether or not Berhalter has the right pieces to implement his style of play remains, at best, equivocal. There are well-reasoned questions about the suitability of certain players to a possession-style system. As well as Berhalter’s decision to exclude Josh Sargent from the Gold Cup roster.

In terms of right leadership, I believe Berhalter is the right man for the job. But, the leadership around him within U.S. Soccer? They’re the equivalent of pencil-pushers sitting in a radiation-free bunker, pretending that a Chernobyl-like nuclear explosion has not occurred. Surrounded by yes-men, insulated from the soccer landscape at large, and mostly concerned with whether or not the adjacent turbine is generating them revenue and power.

Vasily Ignatenko was one of the first responders to the fire at Chernobyl. He was brave, honest and had it been a fire, he would’ve been described as prepared. It wasn’t a fire, it was a nuclear disaster. And ultimately, it meant dire consequences for him.

Perhaps Berhalter won’t make it at USMNT. But, a lot of that will be for reasons that he could never have controlled to begin with.

Follow Nipun on Twitter: NipunChopra7.

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Photo credit: Robbie Mehling/Soc Takes

We’re now roughly one-quarter through the 34-game USL season, meaning most teams have played somewhere between 7 and 10 games each. As of right now, 147 of 561 matches have been played, which is 26.2 percent of the season completed. This is close enough to 25 percent for me, and I assume it’s close enough for you as well.

Quick aside, USL teams have added two games per season, taking them from 32 to 34. While generally speaking, I like having more soccer and having more games played, the number 34 is so much less satisfying than 32. Thirty-two is a power of two number, so it’s easy to divide up as much as one pleases. Thirty-four, however, is a semiprime, which means that it’s the multiple of two prime factors, 17 and two. This displeases me greatly, perhaps more so than the benefit I derive from two additional games per team.

Now back to your irregularly scheduled rambling.

For the season preview, I listed attendance and the 2017 record. Since directly comparing records gets weird when teams haven’t played the same number of games, I’m not going to do that here. We’ll be looking at points per game, which makes more direct comparisons possible. For attendance, I’ll be borrowing from Mike Pendleton’s lovely attendance tracking graphics, because I can’t be bothered to make a fourth spreadsheet for this story. Oh, and we’ll be going alphabetically through the teams, mirroring the layout from my season preview. And with that, let’s begin our USL Eastern Conference Q1 progress report.

Atlanta United 2

* Points per Game: 0.750, 15th in East
* Average Attendance: 3,665, 18th in USL

Atlanta Twonited won their first game against the Baby Bulls and I thought, “Maybe this team will be better than I expected.” Then they conceded late against Charlotte to begin a three-game streak of drawn games and I felt less confident. And since then, they’ve lost four in a row by a combined score of 10-2. They’re new to the USL, their roster is young and they have call-ups to deal with. The offense generally looks alright and they already have nine goals in eight games, but their defense is the worst in the conference and none of their keepers look particularly fantastic at the moment. I don’t know how to feel about this team yet.

Bethlehem Steel FC

* Points per Game: 1.000, 13th in East (-.375 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 2,133, 25th in USL (-30.1% from 2017)

Bethlehem have had a slow start to the season, much as they did last year. They currently have a goal differential of zero, only a single goal worse than last season. If they pick up steam soon just like a year ago, they’ll be able to push themselves up the standings pretty easily, and as the weather gets warmer the attendance should also improve. Things aren’t looking particularly great at the moment, but I’m not worried. There’s nothing unusual or anomalous to be found.

Charleston Battery

* Points per Game: 1.889, Tied 3rd in East (+.201 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 3,594, 19th in USL (+13.5% from 2017)

Charleston lost their third game of the season 5-2 against the Baby Bulls. I’m assuming that after that game, head coach Mike Anhaeuser went and gave them all some sort of pep talk, because they’re undefeated in the six games since and are on a four-game winning streak. It’s their best run of form in years and the fans are responding in turn. Things are trending upward for the Battery, and they’re in for another solid season.

Charlotte Independence

* Points per Game: 1.375, 8th in East (-.125 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 1,687, 28th in USL (+4.4% from 2017)

Charlotte has already had two big wins this season, beating both Ottawa and Cincinnati 4-1. While they did go through a four-game scoring dry spell, they seem to have shed those demons. Jorge Herrera and Cordell Cato are both looking strong, my homeboy Eamon Zayed already has a goal with his new team, and most importantly, they’re selling out games. Now that they’re (almost certainly) going to renovate and occupy American Legion Memorial Stadium, things are looking really solid off the field for the organization. I hope we get to see some massive crowds for Charlotte vs. Charleston or Charlotte vs. North Carolina FC.

FC Cincinnati

* Points per Game: 1.889, Tied 3rd in East (+.451 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 24,235, 1st in USL (+14.3% in USL)

Carrying on with my policy of “no dead horse topics,” let’s talk about some fun things. First up, Cincinnati finally beat Charleston in their opening game of 2018. That leaves only two teams in the Eastern Conference that Cincinnati hasn’t beaten: Nashville (because they’re brand new) and Tampa Bay. Cincinnati will actually play those two teams back-to-back in July. Emmanuel Ledesma is tied for the assists lead with four, the team is tied with the Baby Bulls for the best offense in the Eastern Conference and has only lost twice. Interestingly, two FCC players are tied for first and second in the yellow card standings. Forrest Lasso has five and Dekel Keinan has four. And on a final note, that one guy they said was not healthy enough to play for their team already has three goals for Penn FC. Anyway, Cincinnati is really good, but what else is new?

Indy Eleven

* Points per Game: 1.750, 5th in East (+.719 from 2017 NASL)
* Average Attendance: 11,203, 4th in USL (+33.4% from 2017 NASL)

Indy has arrived in the USL by winning games, making noise and selling lots of tickets. They’re also ridiculously efficient. Forty percent of their shots have been on target and 25 percent of their shots on target have led to goals. They have twice as many points in the standings as goals scored. And strangely, they’ve been undefeated on the road. Owain Fon Williams is doing great, but we must point out that he’s only faced 18 shots. That’s some incredible defending. Indy is doing everything right, as expected.

Louisville City FC

* Points per Game: 2.000, Tied 1st in East (+.063 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 7,039, 6th in USL (-18.3% from 2017)

Louisville is still really, really good, to absolutely no one’s surprise. Cameron Lancaster has four goals in six games, Greg Ranjitsingh is still excellent and all of those guys who were starting and playing consistently well last year are still starting and playing consistently well. They’re in a minor slump after going undefeated through six to start the season, but it doesn’t seem like anything serious or concerning. They’ve still won all four home games in front of big crowds and they’re probably going to win the East again.

Nashville City SC

* Points per Game: 1.500, 7th in East
* Average Attendance: 11,673, 2nd in USL

Nashville is quietly one of the strongest expansion teams in USL history. Through eight games, they’ve posted five shutouts thanks to Matt Pickens and sit just inside the top eight. We definitely don’t have enough data yet to determine where this team might finish, but they could find themselves in the playoffs as a rookie club. They’re also one of the few teams who have yet to receive a red card. Attendance wise, things are superb. Even excluding their home opener that was moved to Nissan Stadium, they’re still in the top five. Way to go, Nashville.

Photo credit: Robbie Mehling/Soc Takes

New York Red Bulls II

* Points per Game: 1.556, 6th in East (+.181 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 775, 33rd in USL (+22.5% from 2017)

The Baby Bulls have only lost once, eight different players have scored a goal, 10 different players have recorded an assist and the team is on a seven-game unbeaten run. And yet, no one is watching. I mean, not no one — their attendance is up considerably — but it’s still terrible. I will give them credit for this: Their lowest crowd this year is still higher than their 2017 average. But they still haven’t cracked 1,000 for any game. The lack of marketing for this team makes me cross. And yet they’re still going to make a playoffs run, as usual.

North Carolina FC

* Points per Game: 1.143, 11th in East (-.263 from 2017 NASL)
* Average Attendance: 3,379, 17th in USL (-15.5% from 2017 NASL)

I’m going to make a potentially controversial statement here: The USL was stronger than the NASL in 2017. I point to NCFC as evidence for this claim. A number of starters from their final NASL season were kept for the move to the USL, and yet the team is not performing as well as they did last year. While the USL has gotten better in 2018, it’s not by a significant margin. Anyway. Daniel Rios has been great, Kyle Bekker is still good and Austin da Luz is one of the few NASL veterans that’s adjusted to the USL. I’m not entirely sold on Alex Tambakis in goal just yet, but a few more good performances could easily change that. The only thing that actively concerns me is the attendance, but not that much. They’ll probably figure it out.

Ottawa Fury FC

* Points per Game: 1.000, 14th in East (-.188 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 5,326, 12th in USL (-1.9% from 2017)

Ottawa opened their season with a three-game road trip and lost all three. Two of those were blowouts. They’re looking like they might have rallied, and have played noticeably better the past three games. Alarmingly, they’ve scored only five goals so far, and three of those were in the previous two games. They need to find some offense quickly if my prediction of playoffs for Ottawa is to come to fruition. Goalkeeper-wise, Callum Irving faced 16 shots in the two games he played, and saved only seven. He’s been benched in favor of Maxime Crepeau, who has been substantially better. Assuming he keeps up his current performance, Ottawa should be alright.

Penn FC

* Points per Game: 1.111, 12th in East (-.045 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 1,335, 29th in USL (-45.0% from 2017, missing 1 game)

This team confuses me. There’s new ownership and branding, plus the weather has been cooperative, yet attendance is terrible. Losing half the fans from last season is terrible — so terrible that it wasn’t even reported for their most recent game against Ottawa. Watching that replay, I noticed the stands we got a glimpse of were almost completely empty and it was unusually, weirdly quiet. Not a good sign at all. I will say that since it was a Monday night game, a bit of a dip can be forgiven. But looking at the box score for the minor league baseball team, who are the primary tenant of the stadium, they drew 2,946. On a Thursday night. The Harrisburg Senators are averaging north of 3,500 in the same exact venue. Penn FC ranks dead last among independent teams and below five MLS reserve sides. Something desperately needs to change.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC

* Points per Game: 2.000, Tied 1st in East (+.875 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 2,238, 24th in USL (-15.2% from 2017)

Pittsburgh are the only remaining undefeated team in the USL. Let that sink in. They are already on pace to surpass last season’s points total by midseason. Including their eight preseason games, they’ve played 16 straight without a loss. This is what happens when you make a big push to rebuild. By points per game, they’re the most improved team in the Eastern Conference. And while the attendance might look bad at first glance, their most recent home game drew 3,123. I blame the Penguins. If they keep up their results on the field, those numbers should rise off the field. Everybody go watch this team, they’re excellent.

Richmond Kickers

* Points per Game: 1.250, 10th in East(+.250 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 4,066, 13th in USL (-12.8% from 2017)

Richmond has been highly inconsistent so far. After losing two to start the year, they went two undefeated. Since then: loss, win, loss, win. And yet they’re still performing better in terms of points per game than last year. They look like two different teams when they’re at home vs. on the road. Fortunately, they’re about to start a three-game home stand which could bump them into the top eight. Attendance wise, they’re down but not by all that much, and their last game drew 5,860. If they can figure out how to win on the road, they could make the playoffs. Could.

Tampa Bay Rowdies

* Points per Game: 1.333, 9th in East (-.323 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 6,151, 9th in USL (+4.4% from 2017)

Tampa Bay is the only team in the East that hasn’t drawn a game this year. Considering that three of their five losses were by a single goal — they’ve won the three games they’ve played at home and spent the past three games on the road — I’ll chalk that up to luck and random chance. Getting blown out by the Baby Bulls and Penn FC sucks, but blowouts happen to the best of us. If they take advantage of their upcoming home games, they’ll be fine. Attendance is still growing steadily, so all good there. Update: Rowdies defender Neill Collins is retiring and immediately taking over as head coach, replacing just-departed Stuart Campbell.

Toronto FC II

* Points per Game: 0.250, 16th in East (-.531 from 2017)
* Average Attendance: 1,236, 30th in USL (+13.5% from 2017)

Because Toronto FC made a deep Champions League run, a lot of TFCII players were called up to the first team. That left a shell team of reserves to try and handle some strong teams. Spoiler alert: They couldn’t handle them. TFCII sits at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with two points, three goals and a -10 goal differential. They’re also playing a handful of games across the border in Rochester, N.Y., the first of which they lost to Pittsburgh. As bad as they were in 2016 and 2017, they’re somehow worse this year. Yikes.

So, that’s the USL Eastern Conference at roughly one-quarter completion. I hope you enjoyed this mess and I hope you’re enjoying the USL. It’s already been a lot of fun and there are still hundreds more games left to be played.

Follow John on Twitter: @JohnMLTX.

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Photo credit: Helge Landmann

Noble Okello is a player with an uncertain future. Okello, currently on contract with Toronto FC, is a player Bundesliga club VfL Wolfsburg is interested in acquiring. The 17-year-old has represented Canada at the U-17 level, but is yet to make any impact at the MLS or USL level for Toronto FC.

In spite of this lack of playing time, Okello was invited to train with Wolfsburg in January and impressed the team’s technical staff enough to warrant three transfer bids for the player.

Soc Takes has seen a copy of the third offer for the player and it includes a six-figure transfer fee. The offer also includes appearance fees as well as a sell-on fee. Soc Takes was able to independently verify the authenticity of this contract.

A source informed Soc Takes that the two sides disagreed on whether or not the deal would be permanent; While TFC was only interested in a loan, Wolfsburg was interested in buying the player outright. Wolfsburg’s meet-us-in-the-middle offer to take the player on loan with an option to buy was also rejected.

Soc Takes spoke to Okello’s agent, who claimed the transfer fee being offered was “a six-figure number that would be more than what FIFA would issue as training compensation.” Soc Takes was unable to independently verify this with FIFA.

Based on the rejection of this deal, it is clear that TFC values the player very highly. That valuation, however, is misaligned with the lack of playing time for Okello at either the MLS or USL level.

A spokesperson for Toronto FC confirmed that Okello trained with the German club and that an offer was received, yet did not clarify why the bid was rejected, citing the club’s policy not to publicly discuss such decisions. 

Since Okello’s contract is with TFC II, TFC would be be able to approve or deny transfer deals without the intervention of MLS.

Canada has a rich history of sending players to the Bundesliga. Paul Stalteri, Marcel de Jong and Julian de Guzman all played in the league. Most famously, Calgary-born Owen Hargreaves moved from Canada to the youth academy at Bayern Munich as a 16-year-old, eventually going on to win multiple trophies with the Bundesliga hegemon.

Whether Okello will be allowed to join that illustrious list, or whether he is able to break through at TFC remains to be seen.

Follow Nipun on Twitter: @NipunChopra7.

Support Soc Takes on Patreon for access to exclusive content and supporter benefits. Click here to become a patron today.

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Whether or not you’ve heard the term, you’ve experienced an example of Shepard tone. Think of the endless stairs in Super Mario 64 or even in the soundtrack of Christopher Nolan films. It is the (auditory) illusion of ascendancy; the feeling that the music is rising in scale, seemingly forever. In reality though, the musical motif is a cheap brilliantly disguised parlor trick. There is apparent ascendancy, but, really, you’re stuck in the same place after eight bars.

As Soc Takes revealed last week, the USL’s expansion fee has risen from $5 million to $7 million. In American sport, the value of a sporting entity is often worth what someone is willing to pay for it. By that argument, the USL is on a strong upward trajectory. But while the (pay)scale does seem to rise, is the league still stuck in the same place?

Quick History

Lower-division soccer in the U.S. was reconfigured in 2009. The United Soccer League (USL) and North American Soccer League (NASL) became separate entities, and it ushered in the latest era of the American “soccerwarz.”

It’s widely known that the NASL experienced a sigmoidal curve of success. Initially promoted to Division II, it secured strong markets such as San Antonio, Tampa, Jacksonville, Miami, Indianapolis, etc. However, by 2015, the tide was turning. The NASL had lost the financial support of Traffic Sports, and the initial defections of Tampa Bay and North Carolina foreshadowed the eventual collapse of the NASL. (For an excellent summary of the “soccerwarz,” read Kartik Krishnaiyer’s “Soccerwarz: Inside America’s Soccer Feud Between MLS, NASL and USL.”)

Meanwhile, the USL, which had for five years remained in the shadow of the glitzy and bombastic NASL, was slowly gathering steam. Per information provided to Soc Takes, the USL was already planning to apply for DII sanctioning as early as 2015. This culminated in a co-awarding of DII sanctioning between the NASL and USL in 2017. By 2018, the USL was sanctioned as the sole DII league in the United States.

Fees

The USL’s upward trajectory is best typified by its consistently rising initial franchise fee. In fact, this rise is truly remarkable.

Per documentation obtained by Soc Takes, these were the USL’s expansion fees starting in 2009:

2009: $750,000 (emergence of the NASL) 2010: $150,000 2011: $250,000 2012: $500,000 2013: $750,000 2014: $2 million 2015: $3 million 2016: N/A (rumored to be $3 million) 2017: $5 million

2018: $7 million

The remarkable rise in the USL’s expansion fees

Within the space of nine years, the initial franchise fee has increased 47-fold. That is remarkable, but this increase cannot be judged in a vacuum. There are many simultaneous events in play, including the aforementioned “promotion” from Division III to II, as well as the demise of market competitors. Here’s more context:

In 1998, the Miami Fusion are believed to have paid $20 million to join MLS. In 2018, FC Cincinnati is believed to have forked out $150 million. That means in 20 years, MLS’ valuation of clubs has risen 7.5-fold. In half that time, the USL’s 47-fold increase has far outpaced even the top professional league in U.S. Soccer.

This clearly indicates that the USL is in demand and, based on the operationally defined metric of expansion franchise valuation, is succeeding. If you want soccer to succeed in America, that’s certainly good news. But it also raises two very central questions: Is the USL making money, and why is the league’s growth out-accelerating even MLS?

Is the USL making money?

Yes, but that wasn’t always the case. Per documentation obtained by Soc Takes, the USL, as a league entity, operated at a net loss between 2009 to 2011. The tide began to turn in 2012, when the USL recorded a profit of $174,522. Since then, the USL has turned over a profit each year. Between 2012-15, the annual profit was six figures. In 2016 and 2017, its net income was $2.42 million and $6.68 million, respectively. Its most profitable year was 2017, and based on multiple expansion announcements, 2018 is likely to be even better.

One misnomer is that the USL collects expansion fees in one lump sum. This notion is fostered by the league’s operational agreement, which suggests that expansion fees are payable as one lump sum at the time of agreement. However, three independent sources confirmed to Soc Takes that expansion franchises usually pay their franchise payments in annual installment payments, per the terms of each franchise’s agreement to join the league. Given that the USL has brought on over 10 new teams in the last couple of years, the league will will reap the benefits — albeit in smaller amounts every year — of that income for years to come.

Improvements

Depending on your own metric, there are other signs of upward progress for the USL.

The USL’s broadcast deal with ESPN+ places the league within the consciousness of American soccer at large; you can fire up your Roku player and see “North Carolina FC vs. Nashville SC” next to the El Trafico derby.

The USL’s media and public relations game is precise and has elevated the lower-division soccer PR in unprecedented ways. FC Cincinnati continues to be one of the best stories of lower-division soccer success. Moreover, with the imminent launch of USLD3 and having potentially secured one of the last bastions of independent soccer, it is clear that the USL is well placed to control non-MLS pro soccer in the U.S. While the NASL’s league office was barebones, the USL’s office in Tampa is constantly expanding and hiring more employees.

Additionally, per documentation, the USL is poised — for the first time in its history — to assist teams with costs associated with broadcasting games, which would be a welcome relief for current owners.

The improvements are not all about business and money either. On the pitch, the USL’s standard of play has improved. I do not have metrics on this, more my subjective opinion based on watching the league between 2016 and 2018. Louisville City FC (last season) and FC Cincinnati (this season) are two of the stronger lower-division teams assembled in recent history. Additionally, goals from USL games regularly feature on ESPN SportsCenter, highlighting at the very least, improved technical ability of outfield players.

Player wages

But, are those technically superior players being paid better? Sort of.

Based on documentation obtained by Soc Takes, while the total expected expenditures for a new USL team were between $1.1 million to $1.5 million in 2012, the total expected expenditures skyrocketed to between $10.6 million to $15.8 million in 2018, a 10-fold increase. Yet, the total expected player salaries per club only increased from $150,000-$200,000 in 2012 (when the USL was third division) to $250,000-$500,000 in 2018, an increase of 2.5-fold at the upper end. So, while owners are forking exponentially increasing expenditures, that money isn’t going toward players at the same level of increase.

Click here for information on expected expenditure for first-year USL owners.

According to USL documentation, the current expected initial investment by a new team is at least $10.6 million (including a $7 million expansion fee). That investment comes in the face of lower-division soccer teams and owners struggling to survive. (Since the publishing of our previous story on this subject, additional USL owners have confirmed the magnitude of annual losses experienced.)

Per the aforementioned documentation, 12 USL-aligned franchises (including the PDL) were terminated in 2017. While the identity of those teams remains unclear, one is believed to be the Rochester Rhinos and the other two are believed to be Vancouver Whitecaps 2 and Orlando City B. Meanwhile, the Harrisburg City Islanders, under new ownership, rebranded as Penn FC.

WTF lads

That brings us to the second question raised by the unquestionable growth of USL valuation. WTF? Except in this case, the ‘W’ stands for “Why.” Perhaps they simply love the sport. And that certainly has a big part in it. But, romanticism notwithstanding — given these owners are also successful businessmen — it still remains confusing.

What is so attractive about the USL that it seduces owners to act against historical financial data and personal financial interests (at least in the short-term)? After all, the league is not misrepresenting the financial hole owners will find themselves in (see table).

Is the USL creating an illusion of artificial scarcity? It is reasonable to believe that with the purported end of MLS expansion, the USL will become the biggest game in town. Therefore, owners believe that this acceleration of USL expansion fees is only headed skyward. This would make financial sense — an owner who spent $500,000 in 2012 could make potentially serious money if the USL’s expansion fees continue to head upward by selling the franchise to another investor.

The USL’s Shepard tone (Credit: @Jeremyya on Twitter).

In an excellent interview conducted by WRALSportsFan’s Neil Morris, USL president Jake Edwards suggested that USL (DII) expansion is about to cessate. “There is a finite number, really,” Edwards said. “We don’t put a hard cap on that, but I would imagine it would be somewhere in the high 30s.”

If true, interested investors may feel under pressure to seek a USL franchise. However, that is contingent on the clockwise rotation of the MLS spigot. If MLS continues to expand beyond its current aspirations, the USL potentially becomes a less interesting commodity.

And, even if the spigot does finally tighten all the way, will “MLS dreamers” — owners in the USL who are simply biding time to get an MLS spot — get disillusioned at the lack of potential for upward mobility? Perhaps they will walk away.

So, regardless of whether MLS curbs expansion, there may yet be an efflux of USL owners depending on their initial goal for investing.

Another potential reason for increasing USL’s valuation may be an attempt by USL to redirect interested owners into joining USLD3. Per documentation provided to Soc Takes last year, the initial expansion fee for USLD3 is $500,000, certainly far more affordable than the USL’s $7 million. In turn, USLD3 might be able to increase its own franchise fee at a rate consistent with the USL’s. USLD3 needs eight teams to apply for Division III sanctioning. Currently, the league has five announced teams.

Problems

There are potential hurdles ahead for the USL. One is that a number of teams may soon have a get-out-of-jail-free clause.

Many of the early USL clubs signed a five-year franchise agreement with the league. That five-year term, depending on the club, may expire at the end of this year or next (Soc Takes was able to confirm this clause with two existing USL owners). This would allow those franchises to exit the league without paying an exit fee — close up shop, cut their losses and put their money in a sure shot investment, like a Marouane Fellaini jersey.

A sureshot investment. (Credit: Man United store)

However, the USL, having recognized this potential problem, started instituting measures in 2016 to incentivize owners to remain in the league. The increased expansion fees was one, while another is a meager fee of $10,000 to re-up for another term. Oh, and this time, the new term is for 10 years.

While the USL has been turning out a yearly profit, now in the millions of dollars, some of that money is being diverted — at a rate of 3.5 percent of annual income — to investors and partners in NuRock holdings. The USL’s 10-year contract with NuRock’s Management and consulting branch expires at the end of the 2019 season, but could be extended for another five years. This does not seemingly affect the ownership of USL, which NuRock Soccer Holdings, LLC still controls at 99% (with Robert Hoskins owning the other 1%).

(UPDATE July 31st, 1030AM: Soc Takes was informed by readers that this was unclear, so the statement about NuRock was clarified. The clarified portion is italicized)

While the USL is currently winning the “soccerwarz,” independent soccer has not disappeared. There are continued conversations regarding NPSL Pro and NISA. Additionally, the potential outcomes of lawsuits involving NASL entities, if successful, would result in the dissolution of professional standards; this would destabilize the USL and MLS in significant ways. For one, it would immediately remove the illusion of artificial scarcity.

(*For excellent coverage of these lawsuits, check out Miki Turner’s articles over at Soccer ESQ.)

Conclusion

There are certainly strong signs of upward mobility for the USL, and in the difficult atmosphere of lower-division soccer, that needs to be appreciated and admired. The USL has already exceeded what the NASL was able to achieve in terms of the league’s financial stability, franchise longevity and measured expansion.

But, concerns remain over the long-term future of the USL. As the league embarks on populating another league of committed owners, it is unclear why those owners continue to invest and hemorrhage money. While the league has created a scenario where increasing expansion fees is possible, all of it may yet sit upon a house of cards, one that — pending a court decision, the no-penalty exit of USL owners due to term expiration or changes in MLS’ expansion processes — may slowly collapse like the upper octave of a Shepard tone.

WRALSportsFan’s Neil Morris contributed to this report.

Follow Nipun on Twitter: NipunChopra7.

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Photo credit: Jarrett Campbell

INDIANAPOLIS — The Indy Eleven have had a busy January. First, the team confirmed a switch to the United Soccer league first reported by Soc Takes’ own Nipun Chopra. A week later, the team announced the head coach that will lead them in the club’s first-ever USL campaign. The 2018 season is rapidly approaching and truthfully, Indy is already at least a couple steps behind.

As busy as the Eleven have been in the new year, fans of the team should expect nothing but a breakneck pace from here until the start of the season. There are puzzle pieces in place, but some of the biggest ones are missing. For a team in its fifth year of on-field operations, it sure looks like an expansion team on paper.

Let’s look at how the Indy Eleven stack up against another team in the USL. Louisville City FC is the league’s returning champions. As champs, they become the standard bearers for competition and preparation on and off the field. Louisville City will begin its fourth year of competition in 2018, but is light years ahead of the Indy Eleven with little more than 60 days before Indy’s first kick.

Venue

Louisville City FC will play all its home matches at Louisville Slugger Field as it has since its inception. It’s not an ideal scenario, but wheels have already started turning for LouCity to get its own soccer-specific stadium in Butchertown.

The Indy Eleven have yet to decide where they are playing in 2018. They are unhappy with Carroll Stadium and unable to strike a deal at Lucas Oil Stadium. There is more to this deal than meets the eye. A political game of chicken is being played that is eerily reminiscent of the NASL’s legal feud with the USSF.

Tickets

This simple concept is being overlooked, but ticket sales are moving along as they should with two months to go in Louisville. Fans know where the seats are and how much they cost. The ticket sales department will be thankful for the boost in interest that a championship might bring.

Indy Eleven fans remain unable to buy tickets. They don’t know how much they will cost and they don’t know where they will be. The team has begun accepting season ticket deposits and Indy president Jeff Belskus has made public comments about similar pricing structures, but none of that information is available anywhere on the team’s website.

Coaching

James O’Connor, Daniel Byrd and Thabane Sutu have all been wearing purple for four years. They won the championship like three months ago.

Martin Rennie has been the head coach of Indy Eleven since Tuesday and had been out of work since 2016. He is the only one listed on the team’s technical staff page. Trevor James has served as an assistant up until now. His future with the team is uncertain. It is also not known if Jon Busch, who served as Indy’s goalkeeper coach for the last two years in addition to starting in net, will be returning to the club in any capacity.*

“With the coaches I am working on finalizing their agreements, but there is nothing to announce yet. With Trevor (James) he is working with me day-to-day on building the team. He’s doing a great job and helping me a lot. He had good knowledge on our team and other teams. He has experience networking so we are working together on that. I am looking to bring in a couple of coaches who I have extended offers to. One of them has now verbally agreed. We are putting together paperwork and the other one is still considering it. Literally, in a couple days, that part should be a lot clearer.” -Indy Eleven head coach Martin Rennie

Players

Louisville City FC have 20 players rostered for the 2018 season and had begun signing new players in 2017 with the addition of Pat McMahon on Dec. 5. The majority of the LouCity roster is intact; 16 returning players had their options picked up.

There are no Indy players under contract. There are a few players that need to re-sign due to a league switch and complex contract language, but Indy doesn’t have any USL players ready to go. Former Indy Eleven forward Eamon Zayed was under contract, but his was terminated last week. There are no players listed on the team’s website. An earlier launch of the USL page had listed Brad Ring, Ben Speas and David Goldsmith incorrectly. The glitch has been fixed.

“I am two days into it and the first thing I wanted to do was to try and let some guys, who I knew weren’t in my plans, I wanted to try and let them know as soon as I could and give them as much possible time as I can. I wanted to let them know that they were not really in my plans. Now what I am doing is working on getting the other guys that I need all lined and getting the paperwork I need and everything else.” -Rennie

The Indy Eleven have a mountain to climb to get ready for the season. Why did they leave so much work to be done? Even if they were going to play in the NASL, they were going to need players and a coach. They were going to need a venue. While it is easy to expect USL champion Louisville City to have its act together, it shouldn’t be that much of a stretch for the Indy Eleven to have more than a team crest with players reporting to camp on Feb. 7.

“I am just focusing on Indy Eleven. There is nothing I can do in terms of what the other teams do, who they sign or how good they are…I’m right now focused on getting the players in that I want to get in, planning towards preseason. It’s quite a short lead time in this particular case, but that might not be a bad thing. There are a lot of players available, because there and not as many teams as there were last season. Economics teaches us about supply and demand and I feel like we are in a good spot right now.” -Rennie

Indy needs to finalize and announce a venue soon. They need to hire coaches immediately. They need to start a marketing campaign for tickets. When they get a chance, they should sign a few players. Indy’s first match of the season is away to Richmond on March 24.

*Language has been clarified. An earlier version stated that Busch would not return.

Follow Aaron on Twitter: @AGunyon.

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Photo credit: Andy Marlin/USA TODAY Sports

INDIANAPOLIS — Indy Eleven have exercised their right to terminate forward Eamon Zayed’s contract ahead of the 2018 season. A provision of the contract allowed for termination triggered by a switch to the United Soccer League.

The 34-year-old international will leave the club holding the record for most goals scored (26) and most goals in a single season (15). Mr. Hat Trick made history for the team in the spring of 2016 when he helped to deliver the teams first trophy with goals in the 16th, 65th and 85th minute. That day later became known as the “Miracle at the Mike” due to the fact that Indy won the spring title on the third tiebreaker. Zayed is the only Indy Eleven player to record a hat trick in league play. He had two such performances in 2016.

Despite poor results for Indy Eleven throughout much of 2017, Zayed was able place 11 balls in the back of the net and record four assists in 25 starts. Those 11 goals tied him for second in all of the NASL, but were not good enough to earn a nomination for the NASL Golden Ball award. It was probably an oversight.

Zayed was on a multi-year deal and was unable to entertain offers from other teams until the league switch had been announced just a few days ago. No doubt he was under the assumption that he was all set for 2018. This is a yet another casualty caused by the D2 soccer warz and this will not be the only surprise coming out of the Indy front office in the next few days.

Follow Aaron on Twitter: @AGunyon.

Support Soc Takes on Patreon for access to patron-only Soc Takes Pod episodes, exclusive written content and tier rewards. Click here to become a patron today.

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Photo credit: Robbie Mehling/Soc Takes

The lower divisions of American soccer are a tumultuous place. Whether it is the collapse of individual clubs, irresponsible behavior toward players or the death of an entire league, the stories of instability are as commonplace as a PBR at your local dive bar.

Yet, there is one narrative we — certainly I — do not often pay attention to.

The owners.

The current status of lower-division American soccer, specifically Division II and Division III men’s professional soccer, means that owners don’t stick around. Not because they don’t want to. Not because they don’t care about the sport. They simply cannot afford to.

And this probably isn’t news to you.

As things stand currently, teams are losing millions every year. And no, I’m not just talking about a team owned by everyone’s favorite lower-division braggadocios billionaire who claims to have lost $18 million. I’m talking about responsible owners, who are consistently finding themselves in the red year after year, with no real respite in sight.

And unless you believe there is an infinite pool of investors worth $20 million who are interested in investing in lower-division soccer, something has to change. Soon. Or else, all of this is simply “Too Small to Succeed.”

THE NUMBERS (please read the caveats at the end of this article)

In researching this article, I spoke to eight owners and/or GMs who were at an American DII club within the last twelve months. They consistently revealed that their teams have lost between $2-$5 million every year.

According to the aforementioned individuals, between 33-60 percent of their expenditure goes toward wages for players, coaches and front office staff. Other areas of expenditure include stadium costs, travel budgets and workers compensation. This cost can range from 20-40 percent of expenditure according to information provided to Soc Takes. Game day production, charitable events, marketing and sales efforts are the other areas of significant expenditure for lower-division teams. Finally, owners pay a security bond each year amounting to between $250,000-$750,000 and a non-refundable participation fee of $150,000 each year.

In terms of revenue, ticket sales bring in between 30-50 percent of revenue, corporate sponsors bring in between 40-50 percent, while merchandise and concessions provide the remainder of the revenue.

And that revenue is nowhere close to meeting the expenditure.

THE CONSEQUENCE

The obvious consequence of all this is that owners dip their toes into the frigid, unforgiving pond of lower-division soccer, and simply walk away. The evidence is in the numbers. I analyzed the shelf-life of current ownership in lower-division professional soccer. Per the analysis, the average amount of time current owners have been primary investors in their teams is 2.46 years. The median is 2 years. The range is 0.25-8 years. 21 out of the 29 (72.4 percent) teams have had ownership groups invested for three years or less.

There are currently only eight (27.6 percent) ownership groups that have committed to their team for four active years: Indy Eleven’s Ersal Ozdemir, OKC Energy FC’s “Prodigal LLC,” Tampa Bay Rowdies’ Bill Edwards, Ottawa Fury FC’s “Ottawa Sports and Entertainment,” Pittsburgh Riverhounds’ Terry Shallenberger, a subset of Phoenix Rising FC’s ownership and Charlotte Independence’s Queen City Soccer Club.

Of the eight, Independence ownership recently brought on additional investors, while Bill Edwards has been rumored to be looking for the same. Also, the future of Ozdemir’s commitment to Indy XI seems equivocal after it was revealed that Ozdemir may have lost around twenty million dollars on the club.

The major outlier is the Richmond Kickers ownership who, per a team spokesperson, has invested in the club since 2010. Per our analysis, that makes them the most committed owners in lower-division soccer.

There seem to be three ownership models currently in the USL. The early teams, who are trying to decide between selling and finding additional investors to mitigate losing millions each year. And MLS dreamers, who are investing heavily in their teams in order to attract the roving Eye of Garber. And finally, there has been a recent influx of owners in the USL who happen to also own baseball teams. By investing in soccer, these owners are able to drive more tickets and schedule more dates into their baseball stadiums.

This triumvirate set of owners are using disparate methodological solutions to the problem.

THE SOLUTIONS

There are a few solutions that this author can think of. None of these solutions manage to immediately bring teams into financial balance. However, perhaps the implementation of one or more of these solutions would incentivize owners to stay with their teams for longer than a couple of years by reducing the magnitude of their losses and increasing revenue.

1. Wait for organic growth

This is the conservative option that all of us assume is happening and want to believe in. There is some evidence supporting it. Per the USL’s franchise agreement provided to Soc Takes by a source, the expansion fee for the USL has increased from $3 million to $5 million. Therefore, an owner can simply hope to recoup his investment by eventually selling his team at an appreciated dollar amount. Yet, unless the value of USL clubs increases significantly, it is difficult to see an offset of annual losses amounting in millions.

The other ways organic growth can help mitigate costs are rising attendance and increased corporate interest in lower-division soccer. Currently, it is an open secret that teams are vastly over-reporting their attendance numbers. These attendance numbers are providing a false sense of security to lower-division fans.

The truth is, teams are not generating enough gate revenue to offset costs. Perhaps that will change as the USL continues to strengthen, but we are nowhere close to that reality. Certainly, upcoming USL teams are promising expansive stadium seating of 15,000.

The USL and its teams (such as Las Vegas Lights FC) have made some strong moves in the corporate sponsor market of late. Most notably, the USL’s partnership with ESPN+. But here’s the thing with the ESPN+ deal. Per the USL franchise agreement, teams will have to pay the league a “television participation fee” now that the league has a national television contract. Moreover, teams are responsible for producing and financing their own TV production. So unless the league is, in turn, paying out to USL teams, this will mean more of a financial burden for owners. And this isn’t a partisan issue. The NASL had a similar clause in its contract and presumably functioned the same way — placing all the financial burden of TV production onto owners.

Bananas isn’t it?

Perhaps if the USL, as a league, is able to attract larger sponsors — and they really should given they are in dozens of markets — that money could filter down to teams and make this sustainable.

But we aren’t there yet. And I’m not certain we will be soon enough to stop losing owners.

2. The MLS + soccer-specific stadium carrot

An early stadium rendering of Cashman Field. Credit: USL

“Oh, we’re halfway there. Oh, oh, living on a prayer,” are the immortal words of Mr. Jon Bon Jovi, once himself an owner of a lower-division professional team.

If owning a team is halfway there, teams such as the Tampa Bay Rowdies, FC Cincinnati, Indy Eleven, San Antonio, North Carolina FC, St. Louis FC, Sacramento Republic, etc., are living on a prayer.

That prayer is that they spend a few years in the lower division, and then get to enjoy the golden (financial) shower of MLS expansion. With MLS expansion comes an increase in TV revenue, spendthrift sponsors and the chance to join Zlatan’s league.

But in order to achieve that dream, these teams need to secure a soccer-specific stadium. The premise of this argument is accurate. Owning your own stadium cuts your operational cost — particularly rent — significantly. It also brings tickets and concessions straight to your pocket and gives you more control over your financial destiny. But, you are still relying on the organic attendance growth required in solution 1. And is it difficult to convince a taxpayer to set aside 0.0000002 cents of his or her tax bill towards a niche sport? You bet it is. Especially when you come to them with this pitch:

“If you help us, we might be awarded with MLS expansion.” To which most of them respond, “What is MLS?” To which you respond, “Soccer.” To which you are laughed out of city meetings.

So, in lieu of taxpayer subsidies, where is the money for stadiums coming from? The owners, thereby increasing their investment further.

Oh, and in case you hadn’t heard, within the next 3-4 years, the MLS carrot will also have disappeared. Also, it is clear that you could spend years working toward an MLS bid (Sac Republic/San Antonio) only to see a city that had yet to play a pro soccer game be awarded an MLS bid ahead of you (city rhymes with Smashville).

3. Promotion-relegation 

Don’t get triggered, the following section will annoy both sides of the argument.

Let me start by saying this — I genuinely believe that promotion-relegation is the best solution to the hemorrhaging money. Prima facie, it will cease the blood flow and lead to an influx of fresh, oxygenated blood. Even if you believe pro-rel is a communist concept started by the Illuminati to control Alex Jones’ brain, you have to admit this:

A person/company is more likely to invest in a lower-division professional soccer team if they know that that team has the possibility of being in MLS someday soon. The possibility of hypothetical Team X joining MLS every season would result in investors and sponsors viewing Team X as a commodity with tremendous growth potential.

“But what about the possibility of relegation, wouldn’t that drive away potential investors, ya idiot?” At this point, outside of Soccer Twitter, nobody knows the difference between the USL, NASL, NPSL, PDL, UPSL, MSNBC, etc. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that the few investors interested in lower-division soccer would turn away on the possibility of relegation.

Based on that simple premise, promotion-relegation is the best solution for the constant turnover of owners and teams due to financial losses. I’m not talking about sporting merit, I’m not talking about player development, etc. Simply money.

Money earned by owners, as a result of the possibility of promotion would include the aforementioned investors, but also the possibility of revenue generated by gaining promotion. As things stand, there is no financial incentive (see solution 6) to winning. That should change in concert with promotion-relegation.

However, it must be stated that not all the aforementioned owners believe in the viability of pro-rel as a mechanism to help their financial situation. Owner of Team E told Soc Takes, “I am not convinced that a magical pool of sponsors exists that is waiting for promotion-relegation to happen. I just don’t think we’re there yet.”

Moreover, convincing MLS owners of promotion-relegation is arguably more difficult than convincing taxpayers to provide subsidies for soccer.

Therefore, while I believe promotion-relegation to be the best option for the financial health of lower-division soccer, I also believe that is very unlikely to happen soon enough to abrogate the loss of owners/teams.

4. Keep dropping player/staff and/or their wages

This is the easy one. And given wages are occasionally half of all expenditure (see Table 2), it is one that owners seem to focus on. In a separate article, I’ll show that players are being offered relatively low wages for joining USL. The need to cut wages has lead to lower-division clubs behaving in irresponsible ways, potentially resulting in unfair treatment of players and staff.

In other words, this is happening and will continue to happen until owners can find ways to increase revenue.

5. The USL heel-turn 

The idea that eventually the USL will compete with MLS for Division I sanctioning is popular on Twitter. There is one circumstantial piece of evidence, the fact that Chicago might have a USL team with a soccer-specific stadium that would compete with the Chicago Fire. Yet, in all my conversations with a plethora of USL personnel, none of them have given any credence to this idea. Moreover, given the close business ties between the USL and MLS, I believe that this idea is completely without merit.

Will USL finally turn heel? (Huge thanks to @Jeremyya for generously designing this GIF for us).

6. Prize money

Professional soccer involves professional soccer players. Professional soccer players are remunerated for doing their jobs. Incredibly, in America, professional soccer teams are not remunerated for success.

In 2017, how much did the San Francisco Deltas win in prize money for winning the NASL? Zero dollars. How much did Louisville City FC win in prize money for winning the USL? Zero dollars.

That’s absurd. Currently, winning an entire league — on the back of 20-plus games, a season of travel and salaries — is worth only bragging rights. Yet again, absurd.

Given the $3-$5 million expansion fees for the two leagues, given they earned millions when teams joined MLS due to their “upward mobility fees,” it is shameful that neither league provided any financial remuneration for their best teams. By my estimation, (See Tab 3 of table), USL has earned over 60M in fees between 2017-2018. While it is indisputable that the league has a healthy and professional front office, at this point, some of that income must be directed towards a winning purse.

This should be low-hanging fruit. Professional leagues must provide a sliding scale of winnings to winners, runners up, semi-finalists, etc. And based on the consistent income of expansion fees and upward mobility fees, the NASL and USL should have been doing this for many years.

CONCLUSION

In the absence of promotion-relegation, lower-division soccer will continue to be a turnstile for owners who have no means to curtail ugly financial losses. It is indisputable that from a financial standpoint, Major League Soccer is a success story, yet that success is not translating to the other realms of professional soccer.

While many of us hope that lower-division soccer will continue to grow organically, that growth has been bradycardic under the current system. In order to retain and attract owners, novel solutions will need to be found. Or else, the successes we are experiencing in lower-division soccer will someday merely be remembered as “The Golden Era,” an era of immense potential, but one which — in spite of all the masturbatory celebration on social media — remained “Too Small to Succeed.”

CAVEATS

The longevity data in Table 1 is missing antecedent data, such as stable ownership of the Charlotte Independence (which would push the average upward) or data from now-defunct NASL clubs such as the Deltas, Rayo OKC, Fort Lauderdale Strikers, etc (which would push the average downward).

The financial data in Table 2 is messy; some of it is estimated and all of it is self-reported without independent verification from Soc Takes. There is also a potential issue of biased sampling; it is likely a story such as this would attract owners who are unhappy at the current state of U.S. Soccer, thereby over-representing the financial problems at hand.

It has also been pointed out that investment in lower-division anything is designed to fail. But if you’re sitting around analyzing everything through the lens of “nothing will change, so why bother pointing it out,” perhaps you need a snack.

Follow Nipun on Twitter: @NipunChopra7.

Support Soc Takes on Patreon for access to exclusive content and supporter benefits. Click here to become a patron today.

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